September 20, 2005 at 11:37:29 p.m.

As we have done for the last 10 Presidential elections, charts have been run on each candidate and for the day of the election. Since the Vice President is automatically tied to the prime candidate, we do not make an analysis for that position. This analysis has no bias for party, candidates history, past performance in previous positions, political profile, personal convictions or other areas that a voter might consider. Our interest is only in analyzing the charts with a focus on potential performance if elected to the presidency. We do consider ability to head the government, get along with congress (whether regardless of who has control), and effectively maintain the country’s place in the global arena. Concurrent to that, we also make some evaluation as to fiscal reliability, in both national as well as international matters and capability in international actions for the good of this country and the well being of the world.

ELECTION DAY: Paramount in this chart is the very real possibility that voter turnout may be the heaviest in recent presidential elections and could possibly set a record. It is an aggressive type day with both parties engaging in very active programs to get voters to the polls. Despite this, many voters will decide at the last minute to vote, partly because of latent emotional response to either the candidates or what the voter perceives as vital issues. This, of course, will make early returns unreliable and last minute swings could very well change anticipated outcomes. Although there won’t be any statistics for this, indicators show a very large percentage of voters will come from the “intellectual areas.” Generally this will point to voters from the scientific communities and high tech industries and educational fields. Whether the vote from those districts will be significantly influential will depend upon how effective the “blue collar” vote will be. In the middle class and blue collar homes, most issues will reflect attitudes about health care and retirement issues. Both areas have “strong” positions in the chart. Also holding a prominent position in the chart are issues concerning the future effecting both the individual and the country. Voters will be looking for some element of security for their future in economic and workplace programs and how they see the candidates through that lens will have a strong effect on the vote. This may well be one of the most dynamic presidential elections since the 1940’s.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: There are two overwhelming elements in his chart and they both deal with issues of changes and vacillation. No doubt he wants to move ahead and will push for legislation and actions that put the country on the leading edge of social and economic change. But history has shown that the American congress is not known for fast closures and that can bring a somewhat bitter confrontation between the oval office and the gentlemen and ladies on the hill. What Mr. Gore wants is to see America in a high profile leadership role and it doesn’t matter to him in what category that manifests. The chart clearly shows his interest in science and he will probably push hard for budgets that reflect support of that area. Since scientific development often comes from military need, it would not be unusual to see a strong interest in underwriting military oriented research and development. The vacillation issue may be subtle and the American public is not privy to what goes on inside the the oval office, so very little of this characteristic will be available for public scrutiny. This being said, the chart shows that Mr. Gore can go through a number of swings on issues, moving from agreement to disagreement without much hesitation. That could leave us to wonder how influential his advisors might be if only for the fact that the Presidency is the chair where the buck stops. Personal fluctuation leaves the door open for intense input and we have to wonder if the loudest and perhaps last voice he hears will be the one he listens to. Of course, the upside is his flexibility and in times of crises that can often be what is needed most. He is not inclined to worry an issue like the proverbial dog with his bone. He can move quickly and impulse plays a role in the way he does this. He might well let his staff and advisors haggle the issue outside his door, but when push comes to shove the gavel will come down…for better or for worse. His economic profile is almost the opposite of everything else we have just covered. Here Mr. Gore moves deliberately, often agonizing over the issues. And it is here that he is most likely to revert to historical record or tried and true methods. It is in the economic area that he is most unsure and therefore most careful. Unwilling to take chances that amount to economic gambles, he will defer to those on his staff who carry the best economic track record. That might be just the balance necessary to keep the country from rocketing into economic outer space without having worked out a way to return home. But, as we know, someone has to prod congress into action and if not the President then who? Economic energy must come from the White House and extended deliberations on how to keep the country fiscally healthy cannot be chewed upon indefinitely. Action in the global arena does not appear as a strength in his chart. He is more likely to meet global issues by example, showing the world what this country has done, or is doing, and asking the global community to embrace similar action. He is not an FDR or Truman when it comes to playing a major role in a fast shrinking world. Certainly he has the persona but there can be some concern as to whether he has desire to be an active player at the global table. Here again, much may be left to his advisors and staff but with world issues so much of a daily front-page event, he cannot afford to take a non aggressive role; not if this country is to maintain its position as a world leader. International politics takes a politician of significant stature and savvy and we cannot find those indicators in Mr. Gore’s chart. Patience is necessary when dealing with other countries, and that is not one of his best characteristics. He wants to lead by dynamic example and perhaps that may be enough in a fast changing world. Certainly we face an undefined future and the qualities of international leadership that worked in past decades may fall far short when applied to the demands of the future.

GOVERNOR GEORGE W. BUSH: If the seat of the President of the United States is, as often declared, the most powerful position in the free world, then it is clear by his chart that Mr. Bush wants that seat. His chart is dominated by personal aggressiveness and a desire to exercise as much control in the office as the Constitution will allow. He is unwilling to take “no” for an answer and he and the Congress will definitely be on a collision coarse unless it is dominated by his political party. He clearly intends to put his mark on the presidency. He is less concerned about the issues than making sure that he advances those programs in which he holds a deep personal interest. That is not to infer he has no interest in what is good for the country, but once he decides that he has reached a decision that is factually supported, he will move whatever mountains that are in his way in order to bring his programs to fruition. Mr. Bush is very sensitive to his acceptance rating with the people. In some cases that can be an overriding factor in how he is willing to proceed. He is committed to being the good guy on the white horse. If the country is happy with that, he will be satisfied. But if the country is not behind him, he will take it as a personal affront and just saying that “I’m the President,” is not going to be enough. If necessary he will take his argument to the people, a la the Roosevelt fireside charts. This too can raise the hackles of congress and make the passage of his legislation much more difficult than it should be. His concerns for the future will be a dominant element of his administration, especially on issues that are clearly the topic of household conversations. Most common among these will be issues of health care and education. He has a vital interest in the well being of people, but so much of this focus is for action down the road rather than doing something in the moment. Promises, as we all know, are simply promises and that “sell” can wear very thin if not supported by hard results. The President must lead and although this is a democracy having too much of an ear to the ground can dilute the office and its effectiveness. Experience shows that you cannot please everyone and if he decides that personal popularity dictates his decisions we are in trouble. One of his primary barometers will be the economic health of the country. He is dollar oriented and few presidents of the past have had as much interest in the bottom line as he does. How will this play out with the chairman of the Fed? Mr. Bush is not likely to sit quietly by while the economic health of the country is manipulated by any agency not under his specific control. He views the economy as the essential icon by which other nations view us. Nothing is likely to make him more confrontational than having our economic status decline. This will have a significant effect on his decisions if we look “poor” to the world around us. For this reason he will push hard to insure that our standard of living is high enough that other nations envy us. Sounds good on the outside, but what will it take to make that a reality? Mr. Bush is a “cost be damned” type executive which does not necessarily include those elements that are thought to incorporate the rules of fiscal responsibility. He will bring the same aggressive personality to the global table that he brings to the oval office. That may not endear him to other world leaders. Every international problem needs an active dialog in order to reach solution and there has to be someone willing to lead that dialog. But sensitivity is an essential characteristic to whoever that person may be and Mr. Bushs’ personal interest to succeed may not please the other members at the table. The approval one receives at home is no guarantee that one will receive the same support in the world arena. Leadership is a virtue but without temperance it becomes dictative. He is certainly wise enough to learn that, which in a short time, can make him a major player in the international arena. – GT